CV risk score trajectories predict incident CVD

  • Wu S & al.
  • JAMA Netw Open
  • 3 May 2019

  • International Clinical Digest
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Takeaway

  • Trajectories of cardiovascular (CV) risk over time can be indicative of incident cardiovascular disease (CVD), according to findings from this population-based study in China.
  • The authors characterize 5 trajectories, from lowest (highest CVD incidence) to highest (lowest CVD incidence).

Why this matters

  • Cardiovascular health score may be a journey, not a single stop to measure along the way.

Key results

  • Score incorporated smoking, body weight, physical activity, diet, plasma glucose level, plasma cholesterol level, and BP.
  • 5 trajectories identified on 14-point max scale:
    • Low-stable: 4.6-5.2 points.
    • Moderate-increasing: mean increase from 5.4 to 7.8.
    • Moderate-decreasing: mean decrease from 7.4 to 6.3.
    • High-stable I: 8.8-9.0 points.
    • High-stable II: 10.9-11.0 points.
  • During 5 years, vs low-stable, high-stable II was linked to reduced risk for incident CVD:
    • Adjusted HR, 0.21 (95% CI, 0.16-0.26).
    • Association was stronger with younger age (vs age 60+ years).

Study design

  • Prospective, population-based study of 74,701 adults (mean baseline age, 49.6 years) without CVD diagnoses.
  • Funding: CyberScience Seed Grant Program, Pennsylvania State University.

Limitations

  • Included only Chinese adults from a single region, so generalizability is not known.