An estimated one in five deaths (18%-21.5%) globally every year can be attributed to fossil fuel pollution, a much higher figure than previously thought, suggests new UK co-authored research.
The study, published in the journal Environmental Research, estimated that there are 8.7 (95% CI, −1.8 to 14.0) million premature deaths each year due to exposure to airborne fine particulate matter (PM2.5) caused by burning fossil fuels; aggravating conditions like asthma and contributing to lung cancer, coronary heart disease, strokes and early mortality.
Until now, the Global Burden of Disease Study put the total number of annual deaths from all outdoor airborne PM2.5 at 4.2 million people. Previous research relied on satellite and surface observations to estimate average global annual concentrations of airborne PM2.5, but these methods cannot distinguish between particles from fossil fuel emissions and those from dust, wildfire smoke or other sources.
This assessment examined mortality associated with PM2.5 from only fossil fuel combustion, making use of a recent meta-analysis of newer studies with a wider range of exposure.
Relative mortality risks were modelled using functions that link long-term exposure to PM2.5 and mortality, incorporating non-linearity in the concentration response. Mortality due to lower respiratory infections among children aged under five years in the Americas and Europe, regions with reliable data on the relative risk of this health outcome from PM2.5 exposure, was also adjusted.
The greatest mortality effect was estimated for regions with substantial fossil fuel-related PM2.5, notably China, India, parts of eastern US, Europe and Southeast Asia.
Globally, exposure to PM2.5 from fossil fuel emissions accounted for an estimated 21.5 per cent of total deaths in 2012, falling to 18 per cent in 2018 due to tightening air quality measures in China.
The authors hope their findings will instill a greater sense of urgency in policy-makers to switch to alternative energy sources.
