- According to WHO projections, high HPV vaccination coverage (>90%) of girls with twice-lifetime screening in low-income and lower-middle-income countries (LMICs) over the next century would eliminate cervical cancer, drastically reduce incidence, and prevent >74 million cases.
Why this matters
- HPV vaccination coverage and screening uptake are low in LMICs, despite evidence demonstrating their efficacy and cost-effectiveness.
- Models predicted the effect of HPV vaccination of girls aged 9 years with catch-up to age 14 years±cervical screening on cancer incidences in 78 LMICs from 2020 to 2120 vs status quo.
- Funding: WHO.
- HPV vaccination+twice-lifetime screening would:
- Reduce incidence by 96.7% (from 19.8 to 0.7 cases per 100,000 women-years).
- Eliminate cervical cancer in 100% of LMICs.
- Avert 74.1 million cases.
- HPV vaccination alone would:
- Reduce the cervical cancer incidence by 89.4% (decline to 2.1 cases per 100,000 women-years).
- Eliminate cervical cancer in 60% (range, 58%-65%) of LMICs.
- Avert 61.0 million cervical cancer cases.
- Vaccination+once-lifetime screening would:
- Reduce incidence by 95% (decline to 1.0 [0.9-2.0] cases per 100,000 women-years).
- Eliminate cervical cancer in 96% of LMICs.
- Avert 67.8 million cases.
- Demographic/behavioral changes and technical development over the next century were not accounted for.