Lung cancer mortality will decrease 79% by 2065, US study shows

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Takeaway

  • If current tobacco control efforts in the United States continue, lung cancer mortality will decrease by 79% by 2065.

Why this matters

  • These figures provide incentive to continue current cessation and prevention programs to further reduce lung cancer mortality.

Study design

  • 4 lung cancer models that include data from the National Health Interview Survey, the Cancer Prevention Study I and II, and the Human Mortality Database.
  • Funding: National Cancer Institute.

Key results

  • Overall age-adjusted lung cancer mortality rate (AAMR) is projected to decrease 79% during 2015-2065, going from 65.0/100,000 people to 13.9/100,000 people in 2065
  • Reduction is projected to be larger in men than in women (83% vs 73%), although projected AAMRs were equal between the sexes by 2045.
  • The mean number of lung cancer deaths is projected to decrease 63%, from about 135,000 in 2015 to about 50,300 in 2065.
  • 4.4 million lung cancer deaths from 2015 to 2065.
  • Percentage of lung cancer deaths among current smokers is projected to be 17.4% (21.7% in men and 12.6% in women) in 2065, a 52% decrease (47% in men and 59% in women) from 2015.
  • An estimated 20 million smokers in the United States aged 30-84 years in 2065.

Limitations

  • Projections based on status quo assumptions.