- If current tobacco control efforts in the United States continue, lung cancer mortality will decrease by 79% by 2065.
Why this matters
- These figures provide incentive to continue current cessation and prevention programs to further reduce lung cancer mortality.
- 4 lung cancer models that include data from the National Health Interview Survey, the Cancer Prevention Study I and II, and the Human Mortality Database.
- Funding: National Cancer Institute.
- Overall age-adjusted lung cancer mortality rate (AAMR) is projected to decrease 79% during 2015-2065, going from 65.0/100,000 people to 13.9/100,000 people in 2065
- Reduction is projected to be larger in men than in women (83% vs 73%), although projected AAMRs were equal between the sexes by 2045.
- The mean number of lung cancer deaths is projected to decrease 63%, from about 135,000 in 2015 to about 50,300 in 2065.
- 4.4 million lung cancer deaths from 2015 to 2065.
- Percentage of lung cancer deaths among current smokers is projected to be 17.4% (21.7% in men and 12.6% in women) in 2065, a 52% decrease (47% in men and 59% in women) from 2015.
- An estimated 20 million smokers in the United States aged 30-84 years in 2065.
- Projections based on status quo assumptions.