- Cancer burden among adult people living with HIV (PLWH) is projected to shift substantially through 2030.
- Overall incidence rates will remain stable with largest declines seen in Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) and Kaposi sarcoma (KS).
- Prostate, lung cancers will emerge as most common cancer types.
Why this matters
- Clinical interventions should focus on cancer prevention and antiretroviral treatment.
- Early detection, treatment of certain screen-detectable cancers (breast, lung, cervical) are recommended.
- Number of US adult PLWH is projected to increase to 1.17 million (2018) and decline to 1.09 million by 2030.
- Proportion of PLWH >65 years will increase from 39.4% (2010) to 47.7% (2030).
- Cancer burden composition will shift overall.
- By 2030, prostate cancer will be the most common cancer (1590 cases; uncertainty estimate [UE]: 1240-1820), followed by lung (1030 cases, UE: 940-1090) and liver (480 cases, UE: 360-630).
- Largest declines for non-HL (−1040 cases), KS (−880 cases); largest increases for prostate (+840 cases), lung (+200 cases), liver cancer (+120 cases).
- Descriptive modeling study of HIV/Cancer Match study and HIV Optimization and Prevention Economics study data projecting cancer incidence rates and prevalent cases in the United States adult HIV population through 2030.
- Funding: National Cancer Institute.
- Uncertain inputs (cancer burden estimates).
- Limited power affects projected trends.