In the next 20 years, the number of older people in the United Kingdom with 4 or more diseases will double, according to estimates from Newcastle University's Institute for Ageing.
The research, published this week in Age and Ageing, the journal of the British Geriatrics Society, predicts that the proportion of adults aged 65 years and older with at least 4 diseases will be 17% by 2035 compared to 9.8% in 2015. In addition, around a third will have mental health conditions, including depression, dementia or cognitive impairment with no dementia.
Increases of more than 50% are projected in the number of older people affected by most individual diseases and impairments, the largest increases being for numbers having cancer (179.4%) and diabetes (118.1%). Arthritis and cancer will see the greatest rise in prevalence of 14.0% and 15.1% respectively. In the >85 years age group, all diseases apart from dementia and depression more than double in absolute numbers between 2015 and 2035.
The authors say the findings suggest that a new model of healthcare will be needed for these patients with “complex multi-morbidity”. The current single-disease-focused model of healthcare is unsuitable for these patients, they say. There needs to be a focus on prevention of disease, and a bespoke healthcare service provision, they advise.
