These are the UK coronavirus stories you need to know about today.
R Number Up as Infections Rise
The R number in England has increased to between 1.2 and 1.5, as infection rates rose across the UK.
The growth rate for England is now +3% to +7%.
The highest R numbers of between 1.3 and 1.6 were seen in the North East and Yorkshire, the South East, and the South West. The lowest was recorded in the North West, where the figure was 1.1 to 1.2.
The development came as the percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 continued to increase in all four nations of the UK in the week ending July 3, figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed.
Estimates were:
- England: 332,900 people within the community population, equating to around 1 in 160 people
- Scotland: 53,200 people, equating to around 1 in 100 people
- Wales: 9000 people, equating to around 1 in 340 people
- Northern Ireland: 6100 people, equating to around 1 in 300 people
Cases compatible with the Delta variant continued to increase in England, Wales, and Scotland, and increased in Northern Ireland.
The Delta variant is now the most common variant across the UK, according to the latest COVID infection survey.
Delta Variant Cases Increase
Cases of the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK rose by 54,268 on the previous week to a total of 216,249, new data showed.
Public Health England (PHE) said it represented a 32% increase.
Of the total number of cases of the variant first identified in India, 44 had the K417N mutation.
The figures showed that the Delta variant currently accounts for approximately 99% of sequenced and 97% genotyped cases from June 27 June to July 3.
The figures showed that 257 people had died with the Delta variant, most of whom were over 50.
Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter, chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge, said: "Around a quarter of the deaths are in unvaccinated over-50s, who presumably will have been offered the vaccine.
"Communities with lower vaccine uptake will be hit hard in [the] current wave."
Paul Hunter, professor in medicine at the University of East Anglia, said: "The 32% increase in all cases sound very alarming but this week’s 54,268 new cases being reported compared with 50,824 the previous week is only a 7% increase in new cases over the previous week."
UK distribution of the Delta variant was:
- 180,643 cases in England
- 28,559 cases in Scotland
- 3,666 cases in Wales
- 3,381 cases in Northern Ireland
In an updated technical briefing, PHE said that the likelihood of an infection occurring in a given context amongst household contacts of cases with Delta had continued to fall, with an estimated 10.3% for exposure events in week commencing June 7.
However, infection risk was higher than with the Alpha variant first identified in Kent.
Dr Jenny Harries, chief executive of the UK Health Security Agency, said: "The data continues to show that the sharp increase in cases that we are seeing is not being followed by a similar increase in hospitalisation and death. This is because two doses of the available vaccines offer a high level of protection against the Delta variant."
She added: "As we approach the planned end of restrictions, we must remain cautious and careful. Cases are rising across the country, and whilst the vaccines offer excellent protection, they do not offer 100% protection."
Low COVID Risk for Young People
The risk of severe illness or mortality from COVID-19 is "extremely low" in children and young people, new research suggested.
An analysis of public health data in England, led by researchers at University College London (UCL), Imperial College London, and the universities of Bristol, York, and Liverpool, found that while being infected with SARS-CoV-2 increased the likelihood of serious illness in young people with pre-existing medical conditions and severe disabilities, the overall risk remained low.
Among the main findings, data from the first year of the pandemic showed that 25 people under 18 died from COVID out of an estimated 469,000 infections.
"Our new findings are important as they will inform shielding guidance for young people as well as decisions about the vaccination of teenagers and children, not just in the UK but internationally," said Prof Russell Viner of UCL Great Ormond Street Institute of Child Health, who is senior author of two of the preprint studies.
Plea for Support for the Immunocompromised
Ahead of a planned loosening of restrictions on July 19, a coalition of health charities has called on the Government to support an estimated half a million immunocompromised or immunosuppressed people for whom COVID vaccines may be less protective.
The 16 charities, including Kidney Care UK, Bowel Cancer UK, and the MS Society, said that new YouGov data showed that 68% of UK adults were not aware that people with certain medical conditions, or who take specific medication, were not as protected by the vaccines as effectively as the overall population.
They have asked the Government to ensure that people had all the relevant information about the risks faced by themselves and others. The need would be particularly urgent once people are told they no longer need to work from home, the charities said.
Speaking on behalf of the coalition, Fiona Loud, policy director at Kidney Care UK, said: "We of course understand and share the desire to return to something close to normality again, but this cannot be at the expense of thousands of lives."
The charities have also called for research into how any booster vaccines could deliver the maximum level of protection to immunocompromised or immunosuppressed people.
In Other News
- The British Medical Association (BMA) urged the Government to reconsider plans to relax COVID restrictions on July 19 after figures showed an increase in the number of people attending hospital emergency departments. Dr Simon Walsh, deputy chair of the BMA consultants committee, said it was "utterly illogical" to go ahead with the easing of rules. "There is such a disconnect between what many doctors are seeing in their day-to-day roles – enormous pressure on hospitals, over-crowding in waiting rooms and emergency attendances soaring – and the fact that in ten days' time, all restrictions could be eased," he said. His comments followed a letter by 100 scientists and doctors that called the planned lifting of restrictions this month as a "dangerous and unethical experiment".
- The NHS COVID contact-tracing app used in England and Wales could be made less sensitive to reduce the number of people being asked to self-isolate for 10 days, it was reported. Ministers were considering the change after the number of alerts rose from 16,000 to 360,000 a week during June, according to the BBC. "We will make sure the app is constantly reviewed so it's appropriate for the period of time we're living through," said Transport Secretary Grant Shapps.
- Positive sentiment towards COVID vaccines remains high, with 96% of adults saying they had confidence in them, the same as the previous week, ONS figures showed. The data suggested that 91% of adults had received at least one dose of a vaccine, compared with 89% last week, while 65% reported receiving a second dose, compared with 63% last week.
See more global coronavirus updates in Medscape’s Coronavirus Resource Centre.
