Research by King’s College London suggests that the dramatic increase in oesophageal adenocarcinoma (OAC) incidence observed since the 1970s has slowed. The analysis of data on oesophageal cancer diagnoses over the last 42 years predicts OAC rates will stay stable up to 2032, whereas further decreases will be seen in the rates of oesophageal squamous cell carcinomas (OSCCs).
Data on 220,026 oesophageal cancers diagnosed in England between 1971 and 2013 show that 87,650 (39.8%) were recorded as OACs. The age-standardised incidence rate (ASR) in men increased from 4.8/100,000 in 1972 to 12.3/100,000 in 1992, but the increase slowed to 17/100,000 in 2012. In women, ASR increased from 1.1/100,000 in 1972 to 3/100,000 in 1992 and 3.8/100,000 in 2012. Incidence rates are predicted to stay stable until 2032, with a slight overall decrease of 5% for men and a slight overall increase of 6% for women.
Of the 220,026 oesophageal cancers, 69,815 (31.7%) were diagnosed with OSCCs. In men, OSCC rates decreased from 7.5 in 1972 to 4.9 in 2012. For women, ASRs increased from 5.5 to 5.9 between 1972 and 1992 and then decreased to 4.7 per 100,000 until 2012. ASRs for OSCCs are projected to decrease by 7% in men by 2032 and by 26% in women.
The study is published in the British Journal of Cancer.
