Researchers have developed a validated new risk model to estimate the probability of lung cancer in lung nodules, which has been named the UK Lung Cancer Screening (UKLS) Nodule Risk Model.
A study, presented in Thorax, used data from the UKLS trial to develop multivariable logistic regression models to estimate the risk for lung cancer at baseline, three-month and 12-month repeat screening and to identify independent predictors.
Of 1994 participants who underwent CT scan, 1013 participants had a total of 5063 lung nodules and 52 (2.6%) of participants developed lung cancer during a median follow-up of four years.
Covariates that predicted lung cancer included female sex, asthma, bronchitis, asbestos exposure, history of cancer, early and late onset of family history of lung cancer, smoking duration, forced vital capacity, nodule type (pure ground-glass and part-solid) and volume.
The data were used to develop and internally validate a risk model for estimating the probability of lung cancer in pulmonary nodules. The UKLS Nodule Risk Model demonstrated good discrimination, calibration and overall performance.
Commenting on the findings, the authors said: “Application of the UKLS Nodule Risk Model has the potential to be used in both research and clinical setting, in CT screening studies using volumetric analysis. The application of our model in identifying nodules at high risk of developing lung cancer in a population-based screening programme needs further study.”
