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UK COVID-19 Update: Risk Tool Predicts Hospitalisation and Death

These are the UK coronavirus stories you need to know about today.

Risk Tool Predicts Hospitalisation and Death

UK researchers have developed a COVID-19 risk tool called QCOVID to help assess which patients are at the highest risk of hospital admission or death.

It was developed using data from more than 8 million English GP records of patients aged 19-100 and linked to COVID-19 test results, hospital, and death registry data.

Known risk factors, such as age, ethnicity, and comorbidities are taken into account.

The tool predicted 73% and 74% of the variation in time to death from COVID-19 in men and women, respectively. The results are published in The BMJ.

Lead researcher Julia Hippisley-Cox, a GP and professor of clinical epidemiology and general practice at the University of Oxford, said in a statement: "Risk assessments to date have been based on the best evidence and clinical expertise, but have focused largely on single factors. The QCOVID risk model provides a much more nuanced assessment of risk by taking into account a number of different factors that are cumulatively used to estimate risk.

"This model will help inform clinical advice so that people can take proportionate precautions to protect themselves from COVID-19."

The tool will be updated as new data emerge. Commenting via the Science Media Centre, Mark Woolhouse, professor of infectious disease epidemiology, University of Edinburgh, said: "This paper is an important landmark in our understanding of COVID-19 risk and paves the way for more emphasis on targeted, risk-based responses to managing the public health threat over the coming months and years."

Latest Local Lockdown

South Yorkshire is the latest region to move to the very high Tier 3 lockdown measures from Saturday.

The latest 7-day case rates per 100,000 for the area were:

  • Sheffield: 402
  • Barnsley: 367
  • Rotherham: 341
  • Doncaster: 285

Scotland won't be easing its latest restrictions which were due to end on Monday. They'll be extended ahead of the introduction of a new tiered system.

Lung Cancer Referrals

The number of people urgently referred to a lung cancer specialist dropped by 75% during the first wave of COVID-19, according to a report from the UK Lung Cancer Coalition (UKLCC).

At least a third of lung cancer patients have already died since the beginning of the pandemic, and some deaths may have been labelled as COVID-19, the report said.

UKLCC Chair, Professor Mick Peake said in a statement: "Fear of engaging with health services, halting the national programme of lung cancer screening pilots, and restricted access to diagnostic tests have all contributed to a drop in urgent 2-week wait GP referrals in England."

He added: "Government guidance to stay at home with a cough, a key symptom of lung cancer, has also caused further confusion."

Daily Data

In today's daily data another 26,688 UK positive tests were reported and 191 deaths.

There are 6479 COVID-19 patients in hospital and 629 ventilator beds are in use.

Nowcast and Forecast

The MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, has published its weekly COVID-19 nowcast and forecast for England.

Among the latest findings:

  • There are estimated to be 53,200 infections each day
  • The number of deaths each day is likely to be between 230 and 515 by 31 October
  • R is estimated to be above 1.0 in most regions
  • London, followed by the North West, continues to have the highest attack rate

Lead researcher Professor Daniela De Angelis commented: "Our latest results reveal that R is in the range 1.1-1.5 across all the seven NHS regions with the number of new daily infections around 50,000 (range 35,000-80,000) nationwide, concentrated particularly in the North East and North West.

"However, transmission seems to be accelerating in the East of England and the South West. These two regions are the only [ones] with growth rates not currently plateauing. This situation needs to be monitored closely over the coming period."

Expert Statistical Help

Pandemic statistics have not always been Public Health England's strong point. Its death figures were found to never let anyone recover after a positive test as death from any reason later counted as a COVID-19 death. A 28 day cut off was later introduced.

Now a new partnership has been announced between the Joint Biosecurity Centre, The Alan Turing Institute, and the Royal Statistical Society (RSS).

RSS President-Elect, Professor Sylvia Richardson, commented: "Statistical modelling has a key role to play in giving us an insight into the spread of the virus, so we as statisticians can assist decision-makers with the policy decisions that affect us all.

"The Royal Statistical Society, along with the Alan Turing Institute, will be able to work transparently and independently in providing the research that is needed at both local and national level."

Care Staffing Crisis

A report from Skills for Care’s Workforce Intelligence Team finds continuing problems in social care in England with an average vacancy rate of 7.3% and a turnover rate of 30.4%.

Nuffield Trust researcher Nina Hemmings commented: "Early data from the period of the coronavirus outbreak suggests pressure on staff has only intensified: sickness rates have nearly tripled since the pandemic began. Given the absolutely crucial role we have seen these workers play during COVID-19 they must be better supported in their health and wellbeing."

See more global coronavirus updates in Medscape’s Coronavirus Resource Centre.

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