- Independent, sustainable, human-to-human spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) has extended to multiple major Chinese cities, many of them global transportation hubs.
- Without immediate, substantial public health interventions, further international spread and additional local epidemics are likely.
- Thai clinician researchers report favorable patient response to drug "cocktail" comprising oseltamivir combined with lopinavir and ritonavir.
Why this matters
- WHO has available its Disease Commodity Package for essential prevention, control, and case management guidance.
- 50% reduced transmission is needed to prevent April disease peak.
- Baseline scenario:
- Basic reproductive number (R0): 2.68 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 2.47-2.86).
- Epidemic doubling time: 6.4 days (95% CrI: 5.8-7.1).
- As of January 25 in greater Wuhan: 75,815 infected persons (95% CrI: 37,304-130,330).
- 461 (95% CrI: 227-805) imported cases, accounting for 53% of all outbound international air travel from China, 69% outside Asia.
- By city (95% CrI):
- Beijing: 113 (57-193);
- Shanghai: 98 (49-168);
- Guangzhou: 111 (56-191); and
- Shenzhen: 80 (40-139).
- Modeling study analyzing basic 2019-nCoV reproductive number; probable outbreak size in Wuhan, December 1, 2019-January 25, 2020; cases imported domestically; and forecasted national and global spread.
- Funding: Hong Kong Special Administrative Region.
- Assumed travel behavior.
- Mobility patterns based on older data.
- Potential seasonality unaccounted for.