CKD: new model predicts transplant donor risk

  • Park JS & al.
  • Transplant Proc
  • 17 Apr 2018

  • curated by Craig Hicks
  • Clinical Essentials
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Takeaway

  • A new model can help predict whether potential kidney donors are at risk for postnephrectomy chronic kidney disease (CKD).

Why this matters

  • "Surgeons and patients could use this model to evaluate the risk of developing CKD," say researchers.
  • Researchers also say that "patients who are likely to develop CKD should receive instruction about risk modification."

Study design

  • Investigators studied patients who underwent donor nephrectomy with 1-year follow-up (n=440; mean age, 41.6 years; mean BMI, 23.3 kg/m2; 29.8% were smokers and 51.6% consumed alcohol).
  • The researchers used a logistic regression model based on patient age and preoperative concentrations of calcium and creatinine to predict risk for CKD.
  • Funding: None disclosed.

Key results

  • 32.7% of patients developed first-time CKD (defined as a glomerular filtration rate of 2) by 1 year after surgery.
  • The researchers’ model predicted CKD with an area under the curve of 0.796, an accuracy of 70.9%, a sensitivity of 66.2%, and a specificity of 80.6%.

Limitations

  • The study was single-center.
  • The prediction model did not account for family history of renal disease.

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