These are the UK coronavirus stories you need to know about today.
A prediction that the NHS waiting list in England could top 13 million was "well within the realms of possibility" but would depend on whether the NHS expanded its capacity, an analysis by the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said.
The number of people on the waiting list has increased by around 900,000 since the start of the pandemic and now stands at 5.3 million – the highest level since the current definition was introduced in 2007.
The biggest change had been the number of people waiting longer than a year for care, the IFS 'observation' article said. At the time the pandemic started, around 1600 people had been on the list for a year or longer, while by May this year that figure had risen to almost 340,000.
Sajid Javid, England's new Health Secretary, has warned that the situation "is going to get a lot worse before it gets better".
The report by the think-tank said that while waiting list increases had been boosted by the pressures of COVID-19 on the health system, they had also been alleviated by people staying away from seeking NHS treatment.
The IFS estimated that if 7 million so-called 'missing patients' returned for care, waiting lists could exceed 13 million – and keep growing.
Max Warner, a research economist at the IFS, and an author of the study, said: "There is a real risk that if the NHS cannot find effective ways to boost its capacity – a challenge at the best of times, let alone after a major pandemic – then much longer waiting lists will be with us for years to come."
Commenting on the analysis, Dr Layla McCay, director of policy at the NHS Confederation, said: "The possibility of backlogs stretching to 13 million and beyond is a nightmare scenario, and sadly, despite the best efforts of NHS organisations, it’s all too possible it could become a reality. However, by acting swiftly and decisively to invest in the NHS, both in capacity and in workforce, the Government can prevent this from happening.
"The upcoming spending review is a real opportunity to ensure the NHS is fully funded to meet pandemic-associated costs. In the more immediate term, however, the Government must allocate enough funding to continue vital programmes such as discharge to assess."
Meanwhile, the British Heart Foundation (BHF) estimated that that the number of people waiting for heart care and diagnosis could peak at around 550,385 in January 2024 if the NHS came under increased pressure from COVID-19 or a severe winter.
The number of people waiting for heart surgery could almost double by February 2022 compared with pre-pandemic levels, with numbers peaking at 15,384 people, the charity predicted.
It called for "decisive action" on NHS funding to prevent the care backlog extending for up to 5 years.
Prof Sir Nilesh Samani, BHF medical director, called for a "clear plan" and "significant and ongoing investment" to bolster NHS capacity.
Scotland Opens Up
All venues were able to open in Scotland from today as legal requirements on physical distancing and limits on the number of people who can meet were abolished.
Some protective measures would, however, remain in place, the Scottish Government said, including the use of face coverings indoors and the collection of contact details as part of Test and Protect.
Capacity limits of 2000 people indoors and 5000 people outdoors would also remain in place, it said.
Adults identified as close contacts of someone who has tested positive for COVID are no longer obliged to self-isolate for 10 days from today, Scottish ministers said. Also, anyone who has received two doses of vaccine with at least two weeks passed since their second dose, and who has no symptoms, is able to end self-isolation after a negative PCR test.
Announcing the move to beyond level 0, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon cautioned: "Declaring freedom from, or victory over, this virus is in my view premature. The harm the virus can do, including through the impact of long COVID, should not be underestimated. And its ability to mutate may yet pose us real challenges."
Vaccinations for 16 and 17 Year Olds
COVID Vaccinations for people aged 16 and 17 began in Scotland over the weekend.
Health boards in Scotland have posted details of drop-in vaccination clinics.
NHS Tayside tweeted that young people in this age group had been "turning up in droves" to receive a vaccine.
Health Secretary Humza Yousaf said: "In line with the latest advice from the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, those who are 16 and 17 will be offered a first dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine.
"We know that drop-in clinics make it easier for young people to fit getting vaccinated into their busy lives."
Speaking on the BBC's Good Morning Scotland radio programme today, John Swinney, the deputy first minister, praised teenagers who came forward to have a jab.
Vaccine Hesitancy
COVID Vaccine hesitancy among teenagers and young adults has decreased, an analysis by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) found.
Compared with a previous survey, vaccine hesitancy in the period June 23 to July 18 was:
- 11% among those aged 16 to 17 years (14% in the previous analysis)
- 5% among those aged 18 to 21 years (9% previously)
- 9% among those aged 22 to 25 years (10% in the previous period)
The ONS said that vaccine hesitancy stood at 21% among Black adults compared with 4% among White adults.
Also, adults living in the most deprived areas of England were more likely to report vaccine hesitancy compared with those living in the least deprived areas.
Overall, vaccine hesitancy among British adults was estimated at 4% - similar to previous sampling, the ONS said.
Another study by the ONS found that the number of UK residents arriving in the UK from abroad who have been vaccinated rose between February and June 2021, from 6% to 62%.
Statisticians said the increase broadly reflected the vaccine rollout in the UK.
Most UK residents arriving home reported finding overseas restrictions difficult to follow.
See more global coronavirus updates in Medscape’s Coronavirus Resource Centre.
